'Extreme case scenario': Scott Morrison reacts to 200,000 infections a day prediction

Australia's chief medical officer has also hit out at "misleading" media reports, claiming the new modelling presents "the worst case scenario".

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said leaders needed to fine tune approaches to Omicron as more became known about the new variant.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said leaders needed to fine tune approaches to Omicron as more became known about the new variant. Source: AAP

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has weighed in on new modelling that shows Australia could reach 200,000 COVID-19 cases a day, labelling the prediction as "very unlikely".

"The modeling that's been reported is a very unlikely, extreme case scenario that assumes that nobody does anything; nobody gets boosters, there are no changes that take place, no one exercises common sense," Mr Morrison told Sunrise.

"The chief medical officer and I just want to assure people that those sort of numbers aren't what we are expecting."
Modelling from the Doherty Institute, published by , forecasts that without restrictions such as density and visitor limits, Australia could hit about 200,000 cases a day by late January or early February.

Chief medical officer Paul Kelly described media reporting on the modelling as "selective" and "misleading".

"While modelling is an important tool to help guide decision-making, it is just one of a range of tools and cannot be viewed in isolation," Professor Kelly said.

Professor Kelly said the modelling presents the "worst case of all potential scenarios" and includes assumptions such as the Omicron variant is as severe as Delta, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program and no change to baseline public health measures in the face of rising case numbers.

"None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together, therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading," he said.
Chief Medical Officer, Professor Paul Kelly
Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly has made a case for mask mandates. Source: AAP
Professor Kelly said early modelling in 2020 at the start of the pandemic suggested that there would be 35,000 ICU beds required within 17 weeks of an uncontrolled outbreak.

"This was never realised," he said.

Professor Kelly said early research shows Omicron could be less severe than Delta when it comes to hospitalisation, ICU admission and death.

"Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia, there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date," he said.

"Omicron is here in Australia, it will be an unwanted guest with us for Christmas, but we can and must do what we can to reduce its impact on each of us and our loved ones."

The comments come ahead of a national cabinet meeting on Wednesday which is set to address booster shots, mask mandates and measures to combat rising COVID-19 infections.
Mr Morrison emphasised the importance of getting boosters in arms, using masks indoors and washing hands as Omicron surges throughout the country.



"This is just common sense and good responsibility," Mr Morrison said.

"And we're working closely together with the states and territories today to get as much commonality as we can.

"But I want to stress, in most of the states and territories, the necessary precautions are in place."


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3 min read
Published 22 December 2021 8:46am
Updated 22 December 2021 9:28am
By Eden Gillespie
Source: SBS News



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