A nation yearning for the silly season frivolity of pre-pandemic times is waking to the sobering reality of how Omicron could spread in Australia over the coming months, if most restrictions are scrapped.
As Prime Minister Scott Morrison, premiers and chief ministers beam into an emergency virtual meeting of national cabinet today, the latest modelling from the Doherty Institute will be top priority.
According to the latest Health Department figures, 37 Omicron cases are in hospital across the country and none have had their treatment escalated to intensive care.
The modelling, first reported by Nine Newspapers, forecasts that if most restrictions are stripped away Australia’s leaders could be holding press conferences confirming national case numbers hitting 200,000 a day by late January or early February.
That’s a staggering figure.
It also needs to be considered in context, as only some parts of the document have been publicly aired and it's a worst-case scenario that the Prime Miniser says doesn't take into account the continuing rollout of the booster program.
The Doherty Institute calculated the figure on the basis of what would happen if restrictions considered low and medium level were abandoned.
For example, getting rid of restrictions on how many people can be in a confined space, and the number of visitors a household can have over.
In that scenario the number of people admitted to hospital would run into the thousands. The modelling also assumed the Omicron variant would bear the same severity as Delta.
The modelling has arrived just as the nation’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly and the chief health officers representing the states and territories argued in writing for a return to mask mandates indoors.
Some parts of the country have heeded the call, the Australian Capital Territory reintroduced masks at the stroke of midnight last night.
Tasmania also has restrictions for mask-wearing inside, while Victoria has retained rules for mandatory mask-wearing in some settings including workers in hospitality and retail and visitors to hospitals.
The prime minister has encouraged the use of masks, but he’s also suggested that “mandates” should be shelved in favour of people taking personal responsibility for their health decisions.
Mr Morrison has also moved to reassure voters lockdowns are in the past.
But the modelling from the Doherty Institute reportedly includes analysis of another lockdown, that could be put in place to limit the spread of the virus and keep hospitalisations low while the booster shots are delivered.
This information provides context for the urgent push being launched by the country’s most populated states, NSW and Victoria, to rollout the booster program as soon as medically possible.
The timeframe for the booster shot has already been shortened from six months to five months, a further reduction is under consideration.
But amid lobbying for the jab jump-start, GPs and pharmacists are already starting to raise concerns about how the booster program is being delivered.
The federal government is adamant there is no shortage of vaccine supply.
But whatever is holding back the boosters will surely be one of the most important tests of national cabinet to date.
Anna Henderson is the chief political correspondent for SBS News.
