Colombia is ending the world’s longest civil war, but a plebiscite could undo everything

After decades of conflict and hundreds of thousands of deaths, the world’s longest running civil war has been brought to an end - but a plebiscite to ratify the peace deal could risk a return to conflict.

File photo: Juliana, 20, left, and Mariana, 24, rebel soldiers for the 36th Front of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC.

File photo: Juliana, 20, left, and Mariana, 24, rebel soldiers for the 36th Front of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. Source: AP

Since 1964 Colombia has been at war with militarised leftist rebel group known as the FARC.

The violence has killed over 220,000 Colombians, displaced millions more, and seen child soldiers drafted into battle. Drug cartels and other armed groups only exacerbated the violence, and human rights groups say atrocities have been committed on all sides.

But Colombia’s leaders – both governmental and paramilitary – are seeking to put that history firmly behind them.

“May this be the last day of the war,” rebel commander Timoleón Jiménez said after shaking hands with his former enemy, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos.

“This means no less than the end of the FARC as an armed organization,” an emotional President Santos said.

The two sides have spent over five years thrashing out a comprehensive peace deal. Dag Nylander, the Norwegian diplomat who mediated the talks, said they celebrated with Cuban cigars and rum.

“It is a historic achievement – a big opportunity for Colombia to end more than five decades of conflict,” he told SBS from Havana, Cuba, where the talks were held.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, left, Cuba's President Raul Castro, center, and Commander of the FARC, Timoleon Jimenez pose for a photo
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, left, Cuba's President Raul Castro, center, and Commander of the FARC, Timoleon Jimenez pose at the signing ceremony. Source: AAP
If the plan succeeds, thousands of FARC militants will emerge from their jungle strongholds and lay down arms as part of a UN monitored disarmament campaign.

The group has been listed as a designated terrorist organisation by the US and the EU, but Colombia has asked that its listing be removed in the wake of the deal.

FARC will transition into a political party, with guaranteed seats in congress and an amnesty for designated crimes if rebels confess. 

Although an agreement has now been inked, success was never guaranteed.

Previous attempts ended in failure, and there were several tense moments. One of FARC’s negotiators was killed last year in a government bombing raid.

“When the peace process was announced it was supposed to be a quick one, limited in time,” a Colombian diplomat told SBS. “What was supposed to be a two year process became a four year one, so people started to get a little bit nervous.”
People celebrate the agreement between Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, and Colombia's government, in Bogota, Colombia, Thursday, June 23, 2016.
People celebrate the agreement between Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, and Colombia's government, in Bogota, Colombia, Thursday, June 23, 2016. Source: AAP
In April last year a FARC attack killed 11 soldiers and ended a unilateral ceasefire, the outbreak of violence killed more than 50, but negotiations continued.

“That particular moment was difficult for all. There were a high numbers of victims on both sides in a short time-span, including people who had been part of the process,” Dag Nylander told SBS.

“There was a level of personal grief, disappointment and a fear that the process was over and that a return to a full-fledged conflict was unavoidable,” he said. “Fortunately, reason prevailed and the parties were able to agree on a number of measures for de-escalation in the field allowing for dialogue at the table to continue.”

“This was one of many difficult moments,” he said.

Negotiations had been suspended earlier, when FARC kidnapped an army general in 2014.

“Political pressure against the agreements was quite high then, and confidence damaged,” Kyle Johnson, the International Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Colombia, told SBS.
A man carries an automatic weapon in the jungle
There were numerous moments where external military flare ups risked destroying the ongoing negotiations. Source: AAP
But while more than five years of negotiations have come to an end, the future of the deal is by no means certain. Colombia is set to hold a plebiscite on the deal in early October, and polls show the result could be close.

Many Colombians touched by FARC’s violence bristle at the idea of an amnesty and guaranteed seats in congress. Former president Alvaro Uribe says the deal rewards narco-terrorism.

"The so-called peace agreement will serve as a thick mantle of impunity," the former president wrote in the Wall Street Journal. He says FARC will plough its drug-traffic revenue into politics, destabilising the country's democracy.

But Kyle Johnson says there was always going to be opposition.

"Any deal signed with the FARC could be seen as courageous, as a big part of Colombian society was going to reject the agreements no matter what," he said. 

The key to lasting peace will be whether those in support can over-rule them, Johnson said.

“It is a kind of do-or-die moment. If the agreements are not approved, essentially, the most likely option is going back to war,” he said.

“Though the government says that and it sounds like a threat, it is right,” Johnson said.  “There is a case to be made – it has not been made – on a philosophical level for voting no, but once you add in the consequences of doing so, it falls apart.”
Second in command and leader of the delegates of FARC, Luciano Marin Ivan Marquez, and Norwegian Special Envoy to the Peace Process in Colombia Dag Nylander.
Second in command and leader of the delegates of FARC, Luciano Marin Ivan Marquez, and Norwegian Special Envoy to the Peace Process in Colombia Dag Nylander. Source: EPA/ERNESTO MASTRASCUSA
Dag Nylander says the deal is a historic opportunity. The balanced result is the “best deal possible,” he told SBS.

SBS understands that initial talks with a smaller militant group, the ELN, are progressing well. Other so called 'criminal bands' have also sent positive signals.

Johnson said a courageous President Santos has all of his political capital riding on the deal’s success, but that FARC is less invested if things turn sour. He says the rebels could help win-over Colombians by apologising for abuses, giving information on missing persons or destroying a symbolic amount of its weapon.

“They have a menu of options, but doing a couple of these would help quite a bit,” he told SBS.
Colombian soldiers set up a checkpoint
Colombia and FARC rebels say they have reached a historic ceasefire to end a long-running conflict. (AAP) Source: AAP
The Colombian diplomat we spoke with will be watching the plebiscite closely. It’s an emotional moment for the country.

“Most Colombians have lived their whole life in this war and everyone has been affected one way or another,” they said.

“For my generation I feel that we know that not every single problem of Colombia is going to be solved with this accord, but as a step towards a country in peace or a ‘normal country’ in which we have never lived,” the millennial said. “We feel there's an opportunity to close a very painful chapter of our history and to have a peaceful country for the generations to come.”

“It's hard to tell what would happen if ‘no’ wins,” they said. “Like the plebiscite they are trying to do to decide on gay marriage in Australia, it's just not the kind of thing that should be decided with a vote."

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6 min read
Published 31 August 2016 7:55pm
Updated 2 September 2016 12:59pm
By Ben Winsor
Source: The Feed

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