TRANSCRIPT
France goes to the polls this weekend in the first round of an election which may cost President Emmanuel Macron his government and hand power to the far-right for the first time.
Polls indicate that the French are taking the vote seriously with the highest turnout for a quarter of a century expected as they decide whether to entrust the country’s domestic policy-making to the far-right National Rally also known as R-N.
President Macron called these elections following a severe defeat of his party by RN in the European parliamentary vote.
This defeat has empowered the National Rally and brought the issues of national identity, immigration, and economic policy to the forefront.
The Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin, is warning of possible civil unrest and violence related to the elections.
“It's possible that there will be extremely strong tensions, first of all on the evening of the elections, so we'll be making sure that order is maintained. On Wednesday morning (June 26) I'll be holding a meeting with the security and intelligence services to prepare the first and second rounds so they take place calmly, democratically. But mainly I'm afraid of tensions after the summer.”
Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally, has capitalised on these issues, positioning her party as a defender of French values against what she describes as the failures of Mr Macron's centrist government.
The outcome remains highly uncertain due to France’s complex, two-stage voting system and potential political alliances.
The stakes are high.
Seeking to cast their centrist camp as the last hope for stability, Mr Macron and his allies are warning the country could face chaos or civil war if either of 'the extremes' on the right or left wins power.
Political Science professor at the University of Nice and Ecole Polytechnique, Vincent Martigny, says Mr Macron is playing to people's fears.
"The strategy of Mr Macron now is 'Me or chaos'. It's a strategy that has been, it's a very well-known strategy of different leaders who have been trying to show that among the extreme possibilities, well actually only one moderate possibility is possible. The problem is that Mr Macron is not acting at all like a moderate candidate and if you look at his campaign, it's one of the most radical campaign, once again equating the left and the extreme right, calling the left 'immigrationist', which is a term saying that the left will encourage immigration, which is an argument that was completely put forward by the extreme right until now. So in a way Mr Macron is playing with fire."
With the election date and the Paris Olympics approaching, the French government has ordered the dissolution of several extreme right and radical Muslim groups, citing threats to national security and public order.
Organisations like the far-right Generation Identity, known for its anti-immigration rhetoric, and various Islamist groups accused of inciting violence and hatred, are among those targeted.
Ms Le Pen's party’s anti-immigration, anti-EU stance has resonated with many French voters who feel left behind by globalisation.
Youssef Elkouch, a Frenchman of Arab roots, has been out protesting against the National Rally.
He feels he is being targeted and is unwelcome in his own country.
"I'm a bit of the typical profile of people who will become a scapegoat -- who already are but will be even more so. We have seen it recently with their idea to bar dual nationals from certain strategic state jobs. This is how it starts and then it goes further. The only coherence in the National Rally program is to attack Muslims or immigrants. I’m French but I don't think that matters to people who vote for them. So there is anxiety on the institutional and political level but also on the level of the population as we have seen in the West when there is a far right government it pushes some people to speak and act openly."
France's parliamentary system is unique, featuring a two-round election process.
Candidates must secure an absolute majority in the first round to win.
If not, a second round occurs with the top candidates.
This system often yields surprising results, allowing smaller parties to gain representation and shifting power balances through alliances.
RN leads opinion polls with 33-36 per cent, followed by a left-wing alliance and Mr Macron’s centrists.
However, the two-round system complicates translating popular votes into parliamentary seats.
Candidates with over 12.5 per cent of votes in their constituencies on the 30th of June advance to the second round on the 7th of July.
Despite predictions of topping the popular vote, it is uncertain if RN can achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly, with projections suggesting 220-260 seats for R-N and its allies.
A Macron win suggests continued centrist policies and stronger European integration, while a Le Pen victory could shift towards nationalism and strain EU relations.
The Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, says she is dismayed by the timing of the elections just weeks before France hosts the Olympic Games.
"One could have, and by one, I mean our President could have given the country some time to breathe and shown some kindness by accepting that maybe this nice break for the Games could be a nice break which gives energy, confidence and hope to a lot of our citizens."
Dr Romain Fathi is a senior lecturer on history with the Australian National University.
He doesn't believe the elections will change anything with the Olympics despite the changing political landscape.
"The political landscape will change on the seventh of July. There's no doubt about that, that's for sure. But the administration will not change the people most of them will remain the same. So the people are in charge of security for the Olympics for the total force in 99.5 per cent of the cases, will remain the same people. The plan that have been made will be followed. The minister may change the deputy minister may change. But the people in charge of security and the tens of thousands of people dedicated to that task will remain the same people following the same action and plan so I don't see how that how the election would affect this."
As the weekend approaches, the atmosphere in France is tense.
The country is divided, and the world is watching.
Will Macron’s gamble pay off? Or will the far-right National Rally party gain more power?
Only time will tell.
