What's in store for summer? Australians have been told to 'prepare for anything'

Australia could face an "unpredictable" summer, according to experts.

Experts are forecasting a cooler and wetter summer compared to last year. Source: AAP / Dan Himbrechts

Parts of Europe have endured relentless heatwaves over the past few months, with several countries setting new records.

And at least 10 countries worldwide have recorded temperatures of 50C and above in the past year.

Tens of thousands of people died as a result of the high temperatures in Europe last year. Source: SBS News

Linden Ashcroft, lecturer in climate science and science communication at the University of Melbourne, says weather in Europe is not a predictor for Australian summers.

"Globally, we see temperatures increasing around the world, but the northern hemisphere is different," she said.

"A record-breaking northern hemisphere summer doesn’t mean that will happen here.

"There are a number of uniquely Australian factors, such as our situation between the Pacific and Indian oceans, which are significant."

Ashcroft explained that as an island continent, Australia's waters heavily affect the climate.

"The temperatures above the seas play a large role in our onshore weather," she said.

"Antarctic winds can also affect rainfall."

'This year is looking unpredictable'

A key indicator of upcoming weather patterns is La Niña and El Niño, terms used to describe changes in wind, clouds, and ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.

In the past few summers, Australia has experienced El Niño, which typically reduces rainfall and leads to increased heat.

But Ashcroft said an El Niño has not been forecast for this summer.

"This year is looking unpredictable so prepare for anything, it will likely be hot, but we don’t know about rainfall," she said.

Tom Mortlock, a senior analyst at Aon insurance company and an adjunct fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, said the seasonal outlook appears neutral for the upcoming summer.

"It’s a pendulum swing between El Niño and La Niña; right now, it's bang in the middle," he said.

In the past few summers, Australia has experienced an El Niño weather pattern, which typically reduces rainfall and leads to increased heat. Credit: AAP

Mortlock said several seasonal indicators suggest a neutral summer, where neither El Niño nor La Niña is declared.

But a minority of predictors are tipping a La Niña year.

"There is around a 50 per cent chance of a La Niña being declared, which would mean cooler temperatures in the east and also wetter weather," he said.

Another climatic indicator, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also appears neutral, according to Mortlock.

The IOD, a climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean, can help predict whether Australia will experience more or less rainfall than average.

While it is too early to make definite predictions, experts forecast a cooler and wetter summer compared to last year.

The Bureau of Meteorology, which forecasts upcoming seasons, has yet to release its predictions for summer 2024/2025.