US Votes: how did the polls get it so wrong?

Polls throughout the US election campaign predicted Hillary Clinton to be the next president, so how did Donald Trump pull off his victory?

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during an election night rally on Wednesday.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during an election night rally on Wednesday. Source: AAP

Throughout the US presidential election race, Democratic Party's Hillary Clinton was tipped to win.

But come election day, Republican Donald Trump clinched key battleground states such as Florida and Ohio and pulled forward in the vote count to be projected by networks as the 45th president of the United States.

AFP is now predicting Trump will win 290 electoral college votes while Clinton has only 218. Trump or Clinton need 270 of 538 electoral votes, which will be counted in December, to become the next president.

Luke Mansillo of the Sydney University's United States Studies Centre, explained to SBS why the polls and pre-election analysis got it so wrong.

Insufficient poll samples

The polls got it so wrong because the polls were fundamentally, systematically flawed - largely because media networks that conducted the polls are cash strapped and therefore produce low-quality analysis, according to Luke Mansillo, a political science PhD candidate at the United States Studies Centre.

Mr Mansillo said he was concerned about the representations of samples with a response rate change.

"Response rates about five years ago were about 30 per cent. Today they’re about 8 per cent. If you’re calling... 800 people ... how do you turn that into something that is reflective of the 20,000 that you originally tried to get."

Not enough young people voted

There’s also the question of who will turn up to vote, Mr Mansillo said.

While this is not an issue in Australia because compulsory voting exists here and it takes place on a weekend, it appeared young voters did not turn out in great numbers on Tuesday in the US.

"Their parents and their grandparents see politics as something that’s done at the ballot box, young voters do not and there are consequences for this."

He used definition of Clinton as the "preferable" candidate and Trump as the "despicable" to explain why.

While some may have been overconfident that Mrs Clinton would be voted in as president, the "preferable" candidate was not better than the 'despicable' one.

"A lot of voters of my generation believe that if it’s not perfect, it’s not worth it at all.

"If you can’t have Bernie Sanders, if you can’t have Jill Stein, why bother."

Black communities despondent after Obama's promise

The African American community did not vote in large numbers as they had in the previous two elections.

"After the Obama experience, the hype and the promises of 2008 – these were not met and a sort of dissatisfaction set in, and from that comes abandonment of electoral participation."

African Americans make up about  of the US population.

Dr John Hart from the Australian National University had said during the campaign that Trump was not a popular choice for this demographic.

"The only way he could have [garnered its support] would be by actually developing policies on employment specifically directed at Black employment problems, which is low-wage jobs in the inner city areas," Dr Hart told SBS.

Women potentially swayed by other bias

Women had been projected to have voted for Hillary Clinton given they comprise close to half of the US population and Trump's sexist persuasions throughout the campaign.

"To be frank the difference between the male and female populations is very small, and you will never underestimate the number of racists," Mr Mansillo said.

"If you were a woman who grew up with a particular social norms such as, 'I don't mind that my husband goes to work and I take care of children', and what have you, 'but I would not want to have my neighbourhood go with some African Americans turning up', [then they'll go for Trump]", he said.

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4 min read
Published 9 November 2016 9:59pm
Updated 10 November 2016 1:10pm
By Andrea Booth


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