Think a Trump defeat will be the end of Trumpism? Think again

Many opponents of Donald Trump are hoping a defeat in the US presidential election will now spell an end to his breed of politics, but it may just be the start of a new chapter in the history of Trumpism.

Donald Trump at a rally in Montoursville, Pennsylvania.

Donald Trump at a rally in Montoursville, Pennsylvania. Source: AFP/Getty Images

We now know that Donald Trump will no longer remain US president and his .

But despite the result (finally), Republican Mr Trump's impact on American society is clear.

And according to some political experts, it’s one that will endure for years.

The beliefs of many of his supporters will remain, they say, as will the underlying factors that led to his original victory. His impact on how future leaders choose to govern will also be significant.

'Trump’s legacy will endure'

Mr Trump appealed successfully to voters with his breed of conservative populist nationalism in 2016.

In office, those ideals were given credence with bans on immigration from Muslim-majority countries, trade wars with China and the removal of the US from global groups such as the World Health Organization.
President Donald Trump waves goodbye to cheering supporters as he departs his campaign rally at Orlando Sanford International Airport in Sanford, Florida, on October 12, 2020. (Photo by Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/TNS/Sipa USA)
Donald Trump in Sanford, Florida. Source: Orlando Sentinel/TNS/Sipa USA
He mixed it with his style of fiery populism, making an enemy of the press while branding himself an ‘outsider’ president, damaging governance institutions and making friends with dictators.

His response to the COVID-19 pandemic, by reassuring people it would just “disappear”, could be said to be populism 101; a simplistic response to a complex problem.

But his brand of nationalism and populism has been dangerous, says Brendon O'Connor, an associate professor in American politics at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre who spoke to SBS News before the election result.
“We've got two very broad brush and often simplistic ideas that can be dangerous without moderation or at least some degree of more sophistication,” he said. 

“And that's what you've got with Trump. You know, these simple solutions, often targeting groups or scapegoating based on fear and opposition, and not much regard for negotiation or compromise.”

'Radical beliefs won’t change overnight'

There's no denying Mr Trump's popularity - 62 million voters threw their support behind him in 2016.

Even if some of those have since been put off by his leadership to change their votes, his die-hard fans will remain, as will their belief structures.

“You're still going to see a lot of white people vote for Donald Trump in this coming election no matter what his record is,” Associate Professor O’Connor said.
Supporters applaud President Donald Trump as he speaks at a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020, in Goodyear, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Trump supporters in Goodyear, Arizona. Source: AP
For those who felt left behind by globalisation, not much has changed economically. And a financial crisis fuelled by COVID-19 won’t have made things any easier for many.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in America who feel financially vulnerable. That's not going to change overnight and certainly not in a COVID-created sort of recession,” Associate Professor O’Connor said. 

“There’ll be plenty of people who have a sense that politics and the economy haven’t served them particularly well.”
US Political Scientist Seth Masket, who is based in Denver, Colorado, and spoke to SBS News before the election result, said the sense of economic dislocation and the polarising issue of race will still be there.

“People have just become more polarised and there's a deeper strain of radicalism since [the Obama era] so I think we're still moving in that direction,” he said. 

Trump supporters who are against immigration, believe minorities get better treatment, and that white people are losing their status, aren’t likely to change their mind soon either, Associate Professor O’Connor said. 

“This kind of status entitlement is really the current thing being whipped up by Trump.”
President Donald Trump gestures to supporters after a campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020, in Goodyear, Ariz. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Donald Trump gestures to the crowd in Goodyear, Arizona. Source: AP
“We've seen that people who see themselves as being the ‘real Americans’ because they’re white and have been in America for maybe a little longer than more recent immigrants - that element of politics has been really destructive.”

Mr Masket has a different view. He says like most other types of supporters, Trump backers rely on the man himself to fuel their beliefs.

“I think the main thing that was motivating them was their enthusiasm about Donald Trump. And they were willing to adopt a lot of the things that he believed, simply because they liked him,” he said. 

“These supporters might adapt their views somewhat but they're going to be looking for someone new to sort of carry that mantle forward.”

'Conservative media will be emboldened'

Associate Professor O’Connor says the role of the conservative media is also significant; they’ve seen what rates and will sell that, regardless of its impact or validity.

“These people have been whipped up into a frenzy by the sort of media organisations supportive of Trump.

“Those people won't suddenly go, ‘Ahh, that was a bit over the top’. You know, the media stations keep them coming back for more by having this level of frenzied alarm.
Bloomington, Indiana resident Vauhxx Booker watches on television at the Sinkhole Craft Beer Bar as United States Republican President Donald J. Trump and Democratic opponent former Vice President Joe Biden debate. The Cleveland debate was the first of se
An Indiana resident watches a presidential debate. Source: Sipa
“And that style of politics will be one of the big legacies of Donald Trump - that by saying ridiculous things, by using scare tactics, by kind of being abusive of your opponents and making all sorts of outlandish claims against them - gets a lot of attention.

“It will be hard to believe that another showboating sort of narcissist won’t want to replicate that.”

'Trump will keep tweeting'

Even now Mr Trump has lost, he’s unlikely to disappear from the public sphere and will probably continue to rally his base behind him via his social media accounts, political experts say. 

And that’s likely to have an impact on public discourse and how future leaders after him govern.
“If Trump is alive and well, it’s hard to imagine him maintaining a low profile," Brandice Canes-Wrone, a professor of public and international affairs at Princeton University in New Jersey told The New York Times.

"And, even without Trump, there are likely GOP presidential candidates popular with this wing of the party [Trump insurgents].”
But, Mr Masket says, a loss means Mr Trump will lose a lot of the power he wields against elected Republicans. 

“While he'll still be very vocal and they'll still be using Twitter a lot and giving speeches and everything, I think a lot of Republicans would feel a little more free to essentially ignore him.”

'We’ll probably have someone like Trump again'

Political experts say the next leaders, especially from the Republican base, may well follow aspects of Mr Trump's leadership style.

“He'll leave a long stain on the Republican Party for his racism and his xenophobia," Associate Professor O’Connor said - allegations Mr Trump has denied. 

"So that will be a common legacy that the Republicans will need to reckon with.”
Donald Trump during a campaign in Lansing, Michigan.
Donald Trump during a campaign in Lansing, Michigan. Source: AP
“And I think that it's pretty likely that there will be future candidates who campaign in the Trump mould. We probably can't see them because they may come from outside of elected politics.”

Mr Trump’s strategy in 2016 was so successful it’s already been replicated in some of the congressional races since, he added. 

“A lot of people who've taken the Trump path and drawn on a similar voting base that Donald Trump got to get the Republican nomination in 2016, they've been pretty successful, becoming the party candidate.”
Mr Masket says the level of coarseness in politics that worsened in the Trump era might remain.

“We're seeing at least some evidence that Republicans have largely followed his lead on that and it's at least up until now, they haven't lost a whole lot of elections because of it. I don't know that they see that there's a major political price for following this path.

“Things could still grow coarser.”

And it might not be the end of Mr Trump trying to win the White House back.

“I think there's a good chance he will be trying to run for president yet again in four years,” Mr Masket said.   

And it's also not the end of him fighting for this one just yet. 

"I WON THE ELECTION," Mr Trump tweeted after the election was called in Mr Biden's favour on Sunday.
"We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: they don't want the truth to be exposed," Mr Trump said in a short statement.

"The simple fact is this election is far from over."

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8 min read
Published 2 November 2020 8:28am
Updated 8 November 2020 9:40am
By Rashida Yosufzai


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