Foreign policy experts have rubbished claims Kurdish forces are intentionally releasing IS prisoners to draw the United States back into Syria.
United States President Donald Trump put the theory forward on Twitter, suggesting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces were strategically releasing prisoners, captured from the so-called Islamic State.
“Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved,” he said.
Turkish-backed forces from the Free Syrian Army prepare for a Turkish incursion targeting Syrian Kurdish fighters. Source: AAP
But Lowy Institute research fellow Lydia Khalil, a former US Department of Defense advisor in Iraq, said Mr Trump’s claims just provided cover for the “chaotic” decision to pull the United States out of Syria.
“[Mr Trump] does need to provide himself some cover for this chaotic decision,” she told SBS News.
Turkish forces capitalised on last week's abrupt US departure from northern Syria against their long-time Kurdish rivals.
The area is also home to some 12,000 detained IS fighters, who are being guarded by the Kurds.
The Kurds had repeatedly sounded warning bells about their ability to contain the prisoners, Ms Khalil said.
Syrian army soldiers arriving in northwestern Syria as tensions escalate with Turkey. Source: SANA/AP
“They have been saying for well over two years that they can’t continue to hold the [prisoners],” she said.
“In the event of a Turkish attack, they will have to reassign security forces. They’ve said that for the past few years.
"This was entirely predictable.”
However, Ms Khalil warned that both Kurdish and Turkish forces would be spreading disinformation as the conflict in the region escalated.
“Would the Kurds exaggerate claims of terrorist activity and put out disinformation? Yes, they would and we see that in conflict," she said.
“But would they deliberately release Islamic state prisoners? There’s no evidence of that at the moment.”
Mr Trump has recently levelled new sanctions against Turkey as well as into Syria.
Syrians bury Syrian Democratic Forces fighters killed fighting during the Turkish advance over the weekend. Source: AP
In a statement, Mr Trump said he had increased tariffs on imports of Turkish steel back up to 50 per cent, six months after they were reduced.
He's also announced he would immediately stop negotiations on what he called a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey.
“Unfortunately, Turkey does not appear to be mitigating the humanitarian effects of its invasion,” he said.
Lowy Institute research fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan, a former Australian Army officer who worked with the United Nations in South Lebanon and Syria, said there was no practical reason for the Kurds to release IS prisoners.
“There’s nothing in it for the Kurds to allow people to break out,” he said.
Syria Democratic Forces fighters take up position as they prepare to counter a recent Turkish offensive. Source: EPA
“Does that mean they wouldn’t be opposed to reports of it happening? It’s in their interest to have the narrative that it’s very difficult to control the detainees.”
Dr Shanahan said there were two major developments to watch in the coming days.
The first was how the uneasy alignment between the Syrian government and the Kurdish forces would play out, he said.
“The second question besides that is what buy-in have the Russians had in terms of supporting the Syrian government.”
