Key Points
- Parts of four Australian states and territories will face a higher threat of bushfire during spring.
- Warmer temperatures, drier conditions and "curing events" have been factored into the bushfire outlook for spring.
- The risk of bushfires in ACT, Tasmania, and Western Australia is expected to be 'normal'.
Following the warmest August on record, parts of Australia face an increased risk of bushfires in the next few months.
The National Council for Fire and Emergency Services has identified priority areas for the season, given the expected climate conditions.
These have been mapped out by state and territory within the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring 2024.
The northernmost states
Large areas in the Northern Territory and Queensland show an increased risk of fires, according to the outlook.
A curing event through late winter led to extensive frosts and sustained intense winds drying out grasslands and open forested areas of central and southern Queensland.
The highlighted areas are those with an increased risk of fire in the coming months according to the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Spring 2024. Source: SBS News
Vegetation is also drying in the NT, where areas within the Alice Springs, Barkly and Savanna fire management zones are at a higher-than-usual risk of fire.
Landholders across the Territory are urged to ensure their fire management plans are current and in place and be aware that fires are carrying overnight.
Easier for fires to start and spread
The threat of fire is higher than usual in the far west and south-western Victoria as well as the south-east corner of South Australia.
The south-east of SA has experienced low soil moisture levels due to below-average rainfall and high-range above-average temperatures during winter.
Predicted above-average to extreme temperatures during spring will increase the risk of fire.
Victoria's far west and south-west not only had a drier than usual winter but a notably dry autumn and winter period.
The seasonal outlook noted a substantial amount of dead and dry plant material within forests would "make it easier for fires to start and spread".
Warm and dry
The risk of bushfires in the ACT, Tasmania and Western Australia is predicted to be 'normal', but all three are expected to experience warmer conditions during spring which will increase bushfire risk towards summer.
In the ACT, fire agencies and land managers will conduct prescribed burning during spring to mitigate potential hazards.
Tasmania will not only have warmer temperatures but also drier conditions.
In the west, forecast spring rainfall is expected to further soil moisture recovery from the severe rainfall deficiencies experienced in the southern part of the state before August.
Wet conditions keep threat in usual range
Average to above-average rainfall in winter largely prevented prescribed burning across NSW.
With wet conditions expected to continue, the potential for bushfires in the state will remain within a 'normal' range during spring.
Be prepared across Australia
According to the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services, the seasonal outlook is not intended as a prediction of where and when bushfires will occur but as a means to identify areas of increased risk of fire "so communities are aware and primed to take appropriate action".
The body is urging Australians to remain alert and if they have not done so already, to prepare their properties and maintain them throughout this period ahead of the hotter months.
