Aust dollar gets reprieve, but risks loom

The Australian dollar has bounced after days of selling but global trade concerns are weighing on commodities, posing fresh risks to the currency.

The Australian dollar is getting a break from selling as the crisis engulfing Turkey's lira calms for the moment, though the outlook was darkened anew by losses in commodities.

News from China that a delegation will go to the US in late August for trade talks also stirred hopes the dispute over tariffs might be settled short of an all-out trade war.

It was just enough for the Aussie dollar to bounce to 72.56 US cents and away from a 19-month trough of 72.03 US cents touched on Wednesday.

The currency faces immediate resistance in the 72.80/90 zone and a major chart barrier at 73.11 US cents.

The Turkish lira steadied a little after Qatar pledged to invest $US15 billion in the country and Turkey's central bank made it much more expensive to short the currency.

However, the bout of turmoil across emerging markets has already dimmed the outlook for world growth and spooked investors out of resources.

Copper sank over 4 per cent on Wednesday to a 15-month trough. The industrial metal is seen as something of a bellwether for global activity and is also a major export earner for Australia, dealing a double blow to the Aussie.

The strength of the US dollar was putting extra pressure on commodities priced in the currency, with gold sliding to the lowest in more than 18-months.

All of which overshadowed Australian data showing unemployment fell to a six-year low of 5.3 per cent in July.

Employment missed forecasts with a drop of 3,900, but that followed a hefty 58,300 jump in June and full-time jobs rose a solid 18,300.

Yet, while the unemployment rate has been slowly declining, wage growth remains stuck near record lows and the market sees scant chance of a hike in interest rates for months to come.

Australian government bond futures were mixed, with the three-year bond contract off half a tick at 97.970. The 10-year contract added 2.5 ticks to 97.4450.


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2 min read
Published 16 August 2018 2:54pm
Source: AAP


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